BEFORE OCTOBER 28 when powerful Hurricane Melissa wrecked the west of the island, Jamaica was on a path of modest, but encouraging, recovery from the impact of hurricane Beryl of 2024. INFLATION HAD cooled to 2.1 percent point-to-point in September; unemployment was reported at 3.3 per cent, and the primary surplus was outperforming projection. Indeed Between April and September, revenue and grants outperformed projections by $3.8 billion; tax collections exceeded expectations by $6.8 billion; unemployment stood at record lows; inflation was comfortably within the Bank of Jamaica’s target range. Growth in the first half of the fiscal year was estimated at 2.8 percent, a sign that the economy was recovering from Hurricane Beryl the year before.. This early-year performance provided credibility, liquidity, and reassurance to markets. The credit rating agencies had a more positive view of Jamaica. The interim fiscal policy paper, tabled in Parliament in December reveals the scale of the economic and fiscal disruption caused by the hurricane. Real GDP for FY 2025/26 is now projected to contract by 4.3 per cent, reversing the earlier forecast growth of 2.2 per cent. Nominal GDP, usually buoyed by inflation alone, is expected to fall by 0.2 per cent. Agriculture, tourism, electricity, and communication services have all been bludgeoned by the storm. Additionally, while the government had crafted its February budget around the promise of a balanced fiscal outcome for 2025/26 and a primary surplus of 5.1 per cent, that ambition is now impossible. The new projection is for a fiscal deficit of 3.5 per cent of GDP, the first such deficit Jamaica has seen since the era of fiscal reform began more than a decade ago. And the public debt, which had been on track to reach the legislated target of 60 percent of GDP by FY 2027/28, must now be re-anchored. The government is formally pushing the timeline back by two years, to FY 2029/30. FISCAL LOOSENING Jamaica has entered an unavoidable period of fiscal loosening; not because of indiscipline, but because of obvious necessity. The upshot: the second half of FY 2025/26 will be defined by shrinking revenues, escalating expenditures, falling employment, particularly in the western parishes, and a supply shock in food, transportation, and energy distribution that will stoke inflation. The government will be forced to allow greater levels of food imports to cushion the inflation environment. The economy is expected to contract sharply, and the state must step forward to fill the void. The FPP outlines the immediate budgetary pressure points: higher recurrent spending for relief, shelter, and social protection; increased compensation expenditures; and a reduction in capital spending due to paralysis in project implementation. The Third Supplementary Estimates reflect this reality clearly: programme spending rises by $94.4 billion, compensation by $11.3 billion, while the capital budget is cut by $2.2 billion. This shift toward consumption-oriented spending is understandable. People must eat, sleep, and live before long-term infrastructure can be rebuilt. But it is also a warning. Unless capital spending execution improves, Jamaica risks underinvesting in the very reconstruction that will power its medium-term recovery. The FPP also underscores a longstanding truth: Jamaica’s public financial machinery is still too slow at delivering large, complex capital projects. Procurement bottlenecks, staffing shortages, and coordination gaps remain obstacles. The Central government, and local authorities have weak capacities to deliver. If ever there were a moment to overhaul the government’s project execution systems, Melissa has forced the issue. CAUTIOUS HOPE The good news is that Jamaica’s medium-term outlook remains positive, if subdued. Real GDP growth is projected to return to the 1–2 per cent range over FY 2026/27 to FY 2028/29. Inflation is expected to normalise. The current account is surprisingly projected to remain in surplus. International reserves remain robust. But make no mistake: this recovery depends entirely on two factors. First, the speed and scale of reconstruction financing, especially from external partners; with over US$6.7 billion pledged over the next three years. The second is the country’s ability to strengthen climate resilience, not just rebuild what was destroyed. The FPP signals a need to pivot toward climate-oriented fiscal policy. The establishment of a Climate Finance Unit in the Ministry of Finance, the reliance on multilayered risk-financing instruments, and the acknowledgement that Jamaica must now normalize climate shocks in its macro-fiscal planning – all signal a new era of realism. The Interim Fiscal Policy Paper is not merely a fiscal update – it is a sobering diagnosis of a country forced into a new macroeconomic reality. But it is also a reminder of how far Jamaica has come. A country that once lurched from crisis to crisis now demonstrates resilience, sobriety, and discipline even under catastrophic strain. The challenge that the FPP points to is how to rebuild – not only structures, but confidence – while holding firmly to the principles that placed Jamaica on the path of recovery in the first place. Joseph Manley places a wreath at the shrine of his father, the late former Prime Minister, the Most Hon. Michael Manley. Occasion was a floral tribute marking the 101st anniversary of the birth of the former prime minister at the National Heroes Park in downtown Kingston, on Wednesday, December 10. RUDOLPH BROWN/PHOTOGRAPHER Jimmy Cliff official funeral December 17 — Grange NEWS BRIEFS Surviving the crisis EDITORIAL THE official funeral service for late reggae singer, Jimmy Cliff, will take place on Wednesday, December 17, at the National Indoor Sports Centre beginning at 10 a.m. Jimmy Cliff passed away on November 24, at the age of 81. Minister of Culture, Gender, Entertainment and Sport, Olivia Grange, who made the announcement said that Cliff is being accorded an official funeral by the Government “for his immense contribution to Jamaican Culture and Entertainment”. The arrangements are being finalised by the Office of the Prime Minister in consultation with the Ministry of Culture, Gender, Entertainment and Sport and the family of the acclaimed musician, singer and actor who was born James Chambers in 1944. Minister Grange said the service at the National Indoor Centre would “provide an opportunity for the country to bid farewell to an outstanding son of Jamaica; an icon”. The minister said the service would feature only spoken word, dance and music in keeping with Jimmy Cliff’s wishes. THE SUPREME Court has thrown out an application brought by the People’s National Party’s Paul Buchanan to overturn the results of the St Andrew West Central general election which he lost to Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness. Buchanan, who was the Opposition Party’s candidate, filed an application for permission to seek judicial review of the decision of the Constituted Authority not to apply to the Election Court to void the results of the September 3 poll. On Monday, Justice Sonya WintBlair refused Buchanan’s application, asserting that the time frame set down by the law is a “knockout blow” to its success. Buchanan had made a request to the Authority for the body to apply to the Election Court to void the election result, citing irregularities, including double voting, voter intimidation, and compromised ballot boxes. However, on September 30, the Authority refused the request, determining that the alleged irregularities did not satisfy the statutory standard required to void the election results. Supreme Court dumps Opposition candidate’s attempt to overturn JLP leader’s general election win in St Andrew West Central Haitian group condemns Trump’s anti-Black, anti-immigrant attacks SAN DIEGO, CMC: THE CALIFORNIA-BASED Haitian Bridge Alliance (HBA) Tuesday “unequivocally” condemned United States President Donald Trump’s latest barrage of anti-Black, anti-immigrant attacks, including his recent remarks referring to Somali immigrants as “garbage” while asserting that the US “does not want them in our country. “His rhetoric, reported widely in national media, is not simply insulting. It constitutes state-sanctioned dehumanisation and reinforces a longstanding pattern of xenophobic and white-nationalist policymaking,” HBA Executive Director Guerline Jozef told the Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC). Jozef also denounced the Trump administration’s decision to pause all pending green card applications for people from 19 countries, including Haiti, saying “the list is overwhelmingly made up of African, Caribbean, Arab and Muslim nations. Over the weekend, Democratic Congresswoman Yvette D. Clarke also condemned what she described as Trump’s “racist attack” on Somalia-born Congresswoman Ilhan Omar and Somali immigrants in Minnesota. “Between falling asleep in his own Cabinet meeting, President Trump somehow finds the time to launch hateful attacks against Congresswoman Ilhan Omar and Somali immigrants in Minnesota,” Clarke, the daughter of Jamaican immigrants, who represents the 9th Congressional District in Brooklyn, New York, told CMC. THE WEEKLY GLEANER | DECEMBER 11, 2025 - JANUARY 7, 2026 | www.jamaica-gleaner.com | NEWS
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